Thursday, March 1, 2012

My Thoughts on the Bubble in College Hoops

It's getting to be that time of the year in college basketball when the teams on the bubble either make or break their seasons.  This season is no exception with about a dozen or so teams jockeying for the final positions in the NCAA Tournament field of 68 come next Sunday.  Now I am not a big fan of the expansion to 68, and here's why:

It rewards mediocrity.  Some of the teams sitting on the fence right now are mediocre at best right now.  Bracketologist Joe Lunardi has Northwestern in as his final team in the tournament, and the Wildcats are 7-10 in the conference. Why should a losing conference record be rewarded?  I understand they have a few nice wins and are the sentimental pick to get in because they never have made it, but the whole body of work is what is really important here.  Plus, how do you distinguish between these teams such as Northwestern, Colorado State, St. Josephs, etc?  How do you really know who's better?  You don't.  The reason why the field expanded is obviously money for television networks.  I thought the expansion was stupid, but VCU made an unreal run last year that was incredible for the state of college basketball and proved that anything can happen.  Despite this occurrence, I'm not sold that any of the teams hovering on the bubble this year are capable of that.  I think VCU of 2011 and George Mason of 2006 shows that this is about a once every five years deal where something like this happens.  The people who decided on expanding to 68 look like geniuses, but I'm still not sold on the bigger field.  The bubble is a thing analysts fight over every year, but I don't really care who gets in on the bubble this year.  Sure, a team could get hot like VCU, but these teams are more than likely to be quick tournament exits.

I still do not understand the computer program that determines RPI (rating percentage index).  The committee has to take this number into consideration, but every year their job is to pick the best 68 teams to be in the field, not the ones with better computer numbers.  I think they generally do a great job.  Missouri State was an RPI of 19 about five years back, and they missed the tournament. They thought they were deserving, but when you looked at it, it was puzzling as to why the computers had them so high.  I wouldn't call RPI useless, but the fact that it is determined by computers who don't watch games is still sketchy to me.

Those are just some of my thoughts regarding the bubble and other topics in college basketball.  We are conference tournament time and the NCAA Tournament Selection Show, and I couldn't be more excited to see how things play out.

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